Asset allocation

The American dream
Economics

The American dream

We believe the unanticipated surge in US immigration is helping to increase the chances of an...

By Tim Drayson

20 Mar 2024

4 min read

What does the Bank of England have in common with Roman priests?
Christopher Jeffery
Economics

What does the Bank of England have in common with Roman priests?

Forecasting future inflation is exceptionally difficult, but the process can still be useful to t...
By Christopher Jeffery
13 Mar 2024
4 min read
UK budget – no surprises and no alarms
James Carrick
Markets and economics

UK budget – no surprises and no alarms

We believe the budget could support growth and reduce headline inflation this year, with the...
By James Carrick
07 Mar 2024
4 min read
Chart of the month: The roulette of rate cuts
Christopher Jeffery
Markets and economics

Chart of the month: The roulette of rate cuts

What is the options market saying about the probability of the Fed not cutting rates this year?
By Christopher Jeffery
06 Mar 2024
1 min read
All quarters are equal, but some are more equal than others
Markets and economics

All quarters are equal, but some are more equal than others

What do Nobel Prize-winning physicist Niels Bohr and baseball player Yogi Berra have in common?...

By Christopher Jeffery

28 Feb 2024

2 min read

Will the rates rally continue?
Christopher Jeffery
Fixed income

Will the rates rally continue?

Global government bonds delivered modestly positive returns in 2023 after two consecutive down...
By Christopher Jeffery
26 Feb 2024
2 min read
Mind the grey swans
Chris Franklin
Markets and economics

Mind the grey swans

Rather than worrying about unpredictable possibilities, we focus our energy on events whose...
By Chris Franklin
20 Feb 2024
5 min read
Pinning the tail on the donkey
Tim Drayson
Economics

Pinning the tail on the donkey

The output gap is one of the most important concepts for macro investors. Unfortunately, it is ve...
By Tim Drayson
19 Feb 2024
3 min read